I'm hearing that the bond market has already priced in between $500 billion and $1 trillion for QE2. Tomorrow morning, we may get our first glimpse of exactly what the Chairman himself has in mind, Big Ben. Anything less alluded to, any hint of hesitation, and there will likely be some hell and fire.
As so often happens, even if the market gets disappointed, there can still be a tremendous upsurge which would likely be sold by the professionals amid positive prognostications and great fanfare on CNBC. We could easily breach 1181 and 1159 on the ES (roughly 1184 and 1162 on the S&P cash) all in the same day. But my guess is that Ben really wants these markets higher, so he'll try to deliver a crushing blow to the shorts.
I had my hands full scaling in and out of the BGU today, bringing down my average as the market fell. My last scale was in the after market. I put an order in above the market and it got filled while I was out doing errands. I wish it would always work that way. I did not trade OEX options today, and missed a nice run in the last hour.
All the tails that I saw this morning didn't really amount to much, but something's afoot, I sense. I still feel we'll get yet another quick spike down in the USD, thus one last blast in everything else. But unless we have an enormous trend day that breaks us out over 25 or 30 S&P points on great breadth, I'll be unloading BGU into it and buying more VXX. Let's wait and see.
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