The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

The Continuing Bifurcation Of Social Mood

I'm slowly gaining conviction that we've been in a multi-year topping pattern since 2000.

I say this because the mixed messages discussed in The Socionomic Implications Of September Vogue: 2012 remain in full bloom, and they telegraph the mixed mood (the term used was bifurcated) that has materialized as the market has rallied strongly inside what could be a larger topping pattern.

The latest issue of Town & Country provides yet another compelling example. The hot pink and orange cover lines of the March "Spring Fashion Special" beckon us to explore "REBEL CHIC: Style Mavericks, Art World Outlaws & Other Originals."

Inside it's even more interesting from a socionomics standpoint. The main fashion spread is called "Subversive Streak" and is explained this way:

"The rebel heiress storms the castle in heels and pencil skirts, furs and ball gowns, upending long-held beliefs about blue-haired ladies in the process."

Socionomics states that women gain dominance in a bear market. The theory also states that bright colors and lots of skin are hallmarks of rising social mood, while darker colors that cover and conceal signal falling social mood. Here we have all of it together, again.

"Running Wild: Welcome To Her World"

"Master Of The House"

The princess has stormed the castle in a floor-length ball gown and hot pink, and is now master of the house.

Socionomics suggests we take heed. Posh Punk is not simply a new trend; it's a state of mind within a four-year rally that's likely part of a 13-year topping pattern . . . a glimpse of the current zeitgeist reflecting opposing moods of optimism and pessimism.

The more I reflect on the continuation of such bifurcated mood, the more I like the chart below.

In addition to portraying the competing forces of bullishness and bearishness which are manifesting simultaneously through the social mood juxtaposition of optimism and pessimism, it suggests a new all-time high, then an upending of some long-held beliefs.

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