In advertising, it's called Wormwording. In the financial markets, it's called Lipstick On A Pig. Both tell the truth in a way that misleads.
Look at these two headlines. One is the teaser, and one is pulled from the newstory after the jump.
Bank Spreads Shrink to Least Since Before Europe's Bailout
Banks Gain to Strongest Since Europe Bailout
My, what lovely headlines. So positive, so bullish. But what do they mean? What are they saying?
Basically, investors are reaching for yield to such an extent that they're paying the highest prices for debt from banks since the banks were bailed out. Bailed out. Bailed out by governments whose debt spreads are worse now than then.
This degree of selective bullishness is not bullish. It indicates an extreme in sentiment. Along with euphoria in precious metals, forex, and the equity markets, we are fast approaching an inflection point.
I feel that it's coming soon. It feels as though we're headed to the upper end of scenario #2, which is the 1175 area on the S&P.
This Friday, we also have the jobs report which has people in a lather. We also have a new moon Thursday night. On the ocean, new moons often bring a change in weather conditions and more extreme tides. In the fields, new moons mean no planting. Do not underestimate its ability to coincide with a change of direction in the markets. Which means at this point, the odds are not pointing to a successful outcome from establishing bullish positions at the end of this week.
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