The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Price vs. Internals

I'm not expecting much before the Fed decision at 2:15 pm, but I've got my eyes on the overnight low of 1233.75. If we close below it, it will likely be the first signal that it's time to be short. Yesterday's highs could be taken out, of course, but not likely by much. 1240.50 looks like a big resistance area now. Ticks are diverging as we move higher: 964 on Friday, 737 on Monday (Tradestation). New S&P 52-week highs continue to be muted and well below trend, and the same with the percentage of S&P stocks above their 50 day MA. Volume remains low on up days and picks up on down days. All in all, not the sort of internals you want to see if you're a bull. But until price, the only true leading indicator, turns bearish, it must be respected. And that means pick your spots carefully.

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