Letting The Market Tip Its Hand

By my read, yesterday should have been much more of a collapse. I mentioned on Twitter, where I do most of my intraday market posting, that it looked like a rising wedge was developing and that I had lightened up on my short line. Now as I watch the NFP reaction, in connection with the overnight pattern which did not resolve the wedge, I must say I'm still not impressed with the conviction of the bears. In my opinion, the S&P futures need to break down convincingly below 1254.50 to confirm my thesis. Therefore, since it has not yet done so at this writing and in light of the fact that I'm leaving for a snowmobile trip to the Great White North in about 45 minutes, I'm glad that I did what I did yesterday and will sit tight. I continue to see 1280 as a key level, and I also have a Fibonacci target of 1287. A possible worst case is the August 2008 price of 1313. Of course, the market could cooperate and implode as soon as I hop in the rig with my pals, but for now I'll have to be content with my current position. Wish me luck on the trails.