Friday I was just as wrong as I was on Thursday. I fought the market again and even had some connectivity issues to boot. Yet instead of emerging with a few dollars like on Thursday, I lost a few dollars.
This happens. It's part of the business. It can even be a good thing -- it gets me to step back and look for perspective. Then I develop a new thesis.
My thesis of late has been that the market was tracing out a megaphone pattern. I now give this about only a 15% chance of occurring.
My gut and my charts suggest that I was early in looking for a top last week. On reflection, the S&P would look much better with another high. Then we'll see which way it wants to go after that.
I'm still thinking lower, but nothing would surprise me. Absolutely nothing.
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