The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, March 18, 2011

Pop Ex

Everything went pop last night. The yen popped to 81.978. S&P futures popped to 1282.50. Most every commodity, metal, and energy future joined in as well.

I'm not taking any chances. Even though I still feel like the S&P futures can get to 1290 or better, anything can happen. I'll be dumping my OEX 575 call/SDS hedge at the open in case this is a dull op-ex. There seems to be a lot of expectation for wild volatility. Maybe it's a quiet session.

Yesterday was a good session for me. I was in scalp mode and it was exhilarating. Since time decay is such an OEX killer, I was scooping up some longer dated SPY 128 calls into weakness and selling into strength during the choppy stuff, thus bringing down my average price. I should be well-rewarded for doing so today, and will use them to replace the OEX calls as part of my hedge.

More precisely though, I'll be better off dumping the whole hedge and re-hedging with SPY 128 puts. Better plan.

One other thing: the full moon is tomorrow, but it's no ordinary full moon. It's the fullest of the full moons this year, meaning we'll be the closest to it all year. Again, anything can happen, and this only accentuates it. Like I said yesterday, be prepared. Both in the markets and out.

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