"We've Done Our Job"

I keep thinking of Dallas Fed president Fisher's comment from the other day: "We've done our job." And then I look at a chart of the Baltic Dry Index.

If there truly was a global recovery, you'd see it in this chart. But you don't.

This is a non-traded index that simply measures the demand for global shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers. It's about as close to an it-is-what-it-is index as you'll ever find, giving one of the clearest pictures of pure supply and demand.

Instead, the "recovery" is a mirage created by targeting asset prices. It's a reflation.