The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

A Low Probability Long Shot, For Now


Why would I be trying to get long now when I'm showing a more powerful spot a lot lower? Because I can't be certain that we get there.

The purple band marks an area of Fibonacci confluence on this daily S&P chart. They are powerful spots, especially on a daily time frame. Should we get to this level, I want to be long in a big way. The expectation would be for about 60 points.

Yesterday I made a couple attempts to get long with SPY calls, one unsuccessful and one successful. I will continue this strategy when given the chance.

But if we start to break much lower here, I will begin to eye this confluence area. I will then outline a hedge strategy using OEX options and e-mini futures to build a big long position with low risk.

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