Gimmie Danger

I'll join the chorus of those saying the markets have closed down 5 weeks in a row. The first inclination, which I echoed Friday, is that it's difficult to short an oversold market.

One thing that should be noted though is that the VIX has not showed any fear after five weeks of down. That, and the S&P stopped right above the swing point from 4/18. That tells me two things: 1) that market participants are complacent and 2) the market may be gathering steam to flush lower until there IS fear.

Could we go higher from here? You bet. But I will refrain from any bets on the S&P until we either bounce or a flush lower gives us some danger.

I am getting long USDCHF and hedging against the position with 6S futures. This will easily keep my hands full until the S&P sets up.