The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, June 20, 2011

If No Bounce, No Good

The most ominous thing last Friday was that the S&P yet again failed at a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The 38.2% retracement is currently about 1291.50. THAT is the target, but unless it can make it there, and beyond, it is telling us loud and clear that it is weak.

If it is indeed that weak, be on guard for a flush.

The situation in Greece was not solved over the weekend. That suggests to me it is getting worse. Time is the enemy now. And they are running out of it.

Friday I stuck to my plan: I dumped the SPXU/OEX 570 hedge at a nice profit and kept the SDS position until around 10:30. Sure I left some money on the table with the SDS, but I wasn't going to take any chances on Quadruple Witching. The OEX 570 calls eventually went out worthless after giving me close to a 100% return on them -- they must be traded proactively or else you will be sorry.

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