Remember Peter Schwartz, co-founder and chairman of GBN (Global Business Network)? He's the guy who wrote The Long Boom in 1999, which forecasted decades of juicy growth and good things to come for as far as the eye could see. If only he could have seen the tech bubble staring him in the face.
Right on time is another installment of the same ilk, which is simply the extrapolation of the present. Today in Australia's The Age.com we learn the country is entering "decades of boom." This sounds like another long view to me.
Australia is about to enter a boom that should last decades propelled by high export prices, enhanced mining capacity and a once-in-a-century global realignment.
Treasury chief economist David Gruen said: "we think the Australian economy is in the midst of a long-lived change".
The exchange rate would not return to its long-run historical average "any time soon".
This is on the heels of Australia's economy contracting the most in 20 years last week, which is being blamed on the weather.
I beg to differ. I am willing to bet that Australia is noticing the first indications of a slowing in China. With 60% of Chinese GDP estimated to be construction spending (empty cities, empty skyscrapers, empty malls), what would OZ look like if a Chinese slowdown became a Chinese halt? I'll let you know once I find a good spot to get short AUD.
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