The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

The Markets Like Something, But How Much?

Europe is up big for the second day in a row. I'm wondering if the real debt deal is over there instead of here in the US. Whatever the case may be, I'm still certain it would turn out to be a Band-aid over a fatal wound, just as any US debt deal will be. Our government will still grow under any plan currently on the table.

For the time being though, the markets seem to like something. We are near the top of the 1295-1330 range on the S&P cash discussed yesterday. For today, the target is likely 1331.48, the July 13th high.

I rarely like to fade markets on Wednesdays because they seem to trend. I'll have to see a great set up to get excited for a short. There were some strong tick bursts yesterday over 1300. That's a lot of buying pressure which will need to dissipate before a turn of some consequence, in my opinion.

The Nasdaq composite looks like it has new highs in its sights. Risk is back on for the moment. USDCAD is closing in on new lows, and I'm waiting for the Swiss franc to do the same.

Silver reversed from a near-perfect 50% retracement of the May lows. I'm patiently waiting for the $43 area which would be a 61.8% retracement. I hope I'm right.

I will be closely watching the S&P at around 10am EST for any signs of weakness (low ticks, weak A/Ds) coupled with a completed impulse pattern. If so, I may try some puts and hedge lower with long e-minis.

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