Anticipation, Speculation, And Expiration

Yesterday and today are a couple rare times when it feels that the market can be anticipated.

On the upside, I'll be interested in anything over 1322 on the futures, for shorts.

That was my feeling yesterday and I stuck to it. I had conviction too. Trading options and hedging them allows you to average down your price, dramatically so with the OEX. For instance, I bought a small test position at $1.85 using 585 weekly puts. Minutes later I backed up the truck at $1.00. At 1323.25, price was in my zone. Then the market reversed and sold off hard. I went long e-minis against the puts in a series of scalps to capture bounces. I felt like I was more in control than I was Wednesday, but again got more aggressive as time passed and gave back a lot of profit in the downdraft around 1:00pm. I also went flat after the market reversed on the rumor of a debt deal -- completely missing the bounce as I was checking some FX positions! -- and left a lot on the table.

The point is I was able to make mistakes and still have an excellent day. An additional point is that I can now definitively say that mercury removal has had a positive effect on my trading performance.

I feel clearer and much more decisive in my trading and execution. As time went by in my life, I simply could not cope with the level of intensity that this style of trading requires. Heavy metals are cumulative in the body. I think I'd just reached my limit and was feeling the full effects which were exceedingly unwelcome. I want to be aware of the aggression and harness it, because I feel it is simply pent up energy that I was not able to channel into my trading when I was feeling so poorly. So I'll work on that.

I took some profits and did some pure speculation at the end of day yesterday, buying a couple OEX 590 calls for $.95 that expire today. My expectation was for an options expiration-style short squeeze. There was a giant flush down in the futures last night, and they are up well this morning. In fact, I 'm trying to hedge the calls before they open by being short 1 e-mini contract and it feels like there's a lot of buying pressure. Much over 1312.50 and I'll target 1318 on the futures.

The market is still under pressure overall. Once expiration occurs, it could probe much lower. Or maybe last night's probe in the futures was it for the week (1295 wasn't hit after all). At this point, it's been a good week for me. I don't mind saying I have no idea what's next.