It's great to see the futures way up this morning. I just don't think they're up far enough; the move lacks an impulsive look thus far. It's got a lot of work to do before it gets me excited.
No comment on the debt deal other than to say not a damn thing has changed and that my expectation remains that the markets will eventually correct what the politicians don't care to.
Last Friday I avoided the equity markets for the most part. I only have 1 SPY call left from a tranche that I bought around 10:30am EST. I will dump it at the open.
Instead, I began to trade the Swiss franc in a knee-jerk way almost as soon as I woke up and immediately got into trouble. I bought at .7925 having missed the low and was targeting the .80 area. Haha, the Swissy was targeting lower. I was soon stopped out with a nice loss to start the day.
As I sometimes do, I played a sort of Jedi Mind Trick on myself. Instead of continuing to trade the USDCHF forex contract with the loss staring me in the face, I started fresh with the 6S futures contract, which I shorted. I got into trouble with that too, but by then I had woken up a bit and gotten my conviction level much higher. I added to the position. Very soon the Swissy turned, and the 6S swung from a loss to a huge gain. I was through with the trade by 1:15pm EST and had made back all my losses plus a hefty bonus.
Trading is a psych game. Use any tricks you can muster to keep yourself from getting destabilized. Had I lost that second trade I would have quit for the day. Winning it felt much better. I've also added a rule that I should avoid trading right away in the morning, no matter how juicy it looks.
Today I have orders in under the .78145 low on the USDCHF. I am still bullish on the dollar vs the Swiss franc but realize that a 26-year bear market takes some time to turn.
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