The S&P May Have Tipped Its Hand

I think the S&P has tipped its hand. Yesterday gave us a 61.8% retracement below the 1162 area -- getting to 1150. Check.

This morning the futures are exploding higher. Check.

I was looking for 1169.54 to get hit in order to have more confidence in the upside scenario. It's looking like that may be the case today. Ideally, 1184.71 gets retaken too. Regardless though, I've already made my move.

It was a difficult one.

One of the tough things about Twitter is going against other traders you respect when they are calling for the exact opposite. Late yesterday afternoon was one of those times.

I wanted to be long. I got long.

I know the downside if I'm wrong could be extremely large, but paradoxically, that is why I took the trade. It didn't feel like the S&P was making enough progress to the downside. I picked up some RSU.

I've got plenty of short inventory in multiple instruments and tranches. I felt I needed some upside exposure. That's it in a nutshell.

If 1150 holds, 1230 could be the new target. There I would be adding to my shorts.

If today's rally fails, rolls over, and plummets through 1150, I'll be flat RSU and looking for 1100 sooner or later.