Greek CDS Shennanigans -- Via Zero Hedge

I came across this cool post on Zero Hedge that poses a great question regarding voluntary investor participation in the bail out (emphasis mine):

Guest Post: Greek CDS Shennanigans

Submitted by Finance Addict

We now know that private holders of Greek bonds will be “invited” (seriously–this was the word used in the EU summit statement) to take a write-down of 50%–halving the face value of the estimated $224 billion in bonds that they hold. This will help bring the Greek debt-to-GDP ratio down from 186% in 2013 to 120% by 2020. The big question–apart from how many investors they will get to go along with this, given that they couldn’t reach their target of 90% investor participation when the write-down was only going to be 21%–is whether this will trigger a CDS pay-out.

Great question. Not enough investors volunteered at 21%. How many will at 50%?