Rocking The Boat

Currently the market is doing everything right. It's getting everyone on the wrong side of the boat and then tipping it.

First it faked out many at 1074.77 by jamming it below support and ripping it higher.

Then it closed right at the 23.6% retracement -- 1144.

Then it blew it away.

This morning it ripped higher on the jobs number. (Does anyone know what it was? I rarely follow these "news" events.)

There are higher targets and lower targets. Higher ones include the cluster of opens and closes surrounding 1175, the 50 day moving average at 1180, the 38% retracement at 1188, and a cluster of Fib extensions surrounding the 1190-1193 area. Round number psychology might as well target 1200 too.

Lower would be very interesting today or Monday or Tuesday or whatever (I don't even know if the stock market is open Monday). Most likely most people are on the LONG side of the boat. I wouldn't be interested in longs until 1130 or below at least. I trimmed my largest long position (SSO) during this morning's pop.

However, it wouldn't be hard to run it into the close today, in which case I'll trim more. And if I had to guess, that is where the most pain would be, even after such a strong bull run. It doesn't feel as though the shorts have capitulated yet.