A Very Dissatisfied Bear

How can I be a dissatisfied bear in this market? It's got nothing to do with being quite wrong yesterday. In fact yesterday cleared up a few things.

No, it's more like a gnawing feeling that since the August 31 highs of 1230.71, the S&P has not had a good flush. It's felt as though it's been held up artificially. It's made me want to hedge my shorts. It's made me look for opportunities to get long. It's made me a nervous bear. It's made me not trust the trend.

What would change my mind? Two scenarios. One would be a scary flush to the 1000 area or even better, 950. That would finally give the action since the 1230 level "the right look." What's bothered me is that it's felt corrective since then. A sharp down thrust would fix that.

The other scenario outlined in the chart below would view the entire move since 1230 as a larger b-wave than I had previously thought. It would have one more up thrust before the final 5th wave kicked in and flushed down to the 950-1000 area.

I took off a small portion of my shorts yesterday and was miffed to see the market tank late in the day. Going into the day, I was 2:1 short. Now I'm slightly less so.

I've been a bear for some time. You'd think I'd be very giddy. No way.

Even when I'm dissatisfied bear though, I still feel lucky to be a trader.