The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, November 4, 2011

First Order Of Business This Morning . . .

First order of business this morning is to see the S&P under 1250.74. If that can happen, I will feel better that the rally is not an impulse but rather an upward correction.

Futures are down in the pre-market on the heels of the NFP number. All this means to me is that the S&P will open lower after hitting a 61.8% retracement of Tuesday's 1215.42 lows.

Should the market gather itself and head higher today, 1273, the 200-day moving average, could be in focus.

Miraculously, the SPY 126 calls I was using last Monday (yeah, duh) were back in the money yesterday. I thought they were going to be worthless, but they turned out to be ideal to hedge against. So I did. Right now I'm long these calls with the SDS inverse ETF against them.

Without a break through 1250.74 today, I will leg out of the SDS and probably get long either calls or SSO. I could also do this while keeping the SDS, getting bigger in it, or dumping the whole trade. There is still political risk in the market, so I may do the latter. Rumblings that the IMF may deepen their involvement into a bazooka-style shock-and-awe Keynesian misadventure could rattle the shorts. It will not solve a thing, though.

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