Back To Work

Back from a great trip to Georgia and ready for work. I thought I had egg on face after my last post that was expecting higher prices on the S&P only to see it implode on Friday. But I must say that I continue to feel higher prices may come.

Yes, 1281.95 was taken out to the downside, but there may be another pattern in play, one that cancels out the one I was counting. The way I see it, the S&P would now have to collapse in the next day or two below 1242.82 if Friday's break is for real. The way Friday closed just didn't feel like the real thing. Neither does the overnight action thus far. At a juncture such as this, you will know it when the market turns. You'll feel it. Just like it felt in March of 2000, or the March low in 2003, or the March low of 2009. It's like a sudden, massive mood jolt.

Hmm, what might this say about March of 2012? Let's see if we get through January first.

For now, I still have my eye on 1308, the 78.6% retracement (the exact number is 1307.28). But there is also a huge shelf in the 1340s that may want to be tested if the market fails to break down.

Found this on Zero Hedge this morning:

The apparently critical-when-its-going-up-but-ignore-it-when-it-is-falling index of the cost of dry bulk goods transportation has 'crashed' in the last few weeks to its lowest level since January 2009 (back below 1000 according to today's levels). Whether this is seasonal output differences or weather impacts, it seems clear that lower steel output in China and a decline in European imports is having its impact on global trade. The index has fallen for 19 days in a row, down almost 50%, its largest drop since the harrowing period of Q4 2008.

I truly wish the Baltic Index was higher at this juncture. It feels like a false low, and if I could trade this index (it's not able to be traded), I would buy it here as a hedge.