I was not enthused by the futures market this morning, but it seems things have turned around. ADP's job numbers -- a whopping 8 standard deviations above the estimates -- may have stopped the overreaction to the news that Italy's largest bank, Unicredit, was halted after trading down over 10%.
The market was ready to correct anyway, but in the thin overnight futures session, almost anything can happen. As long as the cash S&P stays above 1268.10, I'll feel confident that 1292.66 (or higher) is the target.
News, at most, has a short term affect on the market, but it does not affect the overall pattern in force. Still, it's hard to be long in a bear market. The surprises are usually to the downside.
I raised the stop on SSO from 1264.12 (I only use cash S&P levels, not the prices of whatever ETF I'm trading because they're just derivatives) because yesterday looked like the S&P hammered out a definitive 4th wave low just below the confluence level I mentioned. Maybe there is some other pattern in play, but I would not feel good about price getting below 68.10. I can pull the rip cord there and still walk away with a little profit, but no loss at all. Below 64.12? Forget it. I'll have a tiny loss but more confidence that something else is going on.
Did I mention it's hard to be long in a bear market?
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