Taking The Stairs Up And The Elevator Down

This weekend's homework took me to the mall where I quickly discovered that the bright, vibrant colors noted in the The Socionomic Implications Of September Vogue have gone mainstream.

In that post, I noted that bright colors were being used primarily as accents (as opposed to the main focus). All that has changed. Bright colors are now leading as virtual billboards of optimism.

I now owe a big apology to the editor that I maligned in that post:

“Palette Cleansing—out with tedious black. we’re clamoring for scarlet, shamrock, and tangerine.” …really? haha, every year someone declares black dead, and every year it comes back. this chick is high on kool-aid.

She was right. And I was the one drinking the Kool-Aid. The proof is in these pictures. It seems that the mass retailers are clamoring to sell color to the public (at a deflationary 40-60% off). Keep your eyes peeled to see if people actually wear it.













Then came part 2 of my weekend homework. Ever since my trip to Georgia a few weeks ago, I've been devouring The Mania Chronicles, a mammoth 700-page real-time account of the great financial bubble from 1995-2008.

I kept coming across page 256 for some reason. Now I know why. An entry published in October 2006, notes the following (emphasis mine):

Designers have been churning out darker themes for some time. Of course, the public has yet to embrace them, but the stark contrast to, and steady movement away from, the colorful and revealing styles of 2000 when the NASDAQ and S&P reached their all-time highs is a powerful sign that the bear market is laying the groundwork for broad public acceptance of mostly longer skirts, darker colors and various body coverings of the last few years.

The one whimsical item mentioned in the [September 19 fashion article from the Washington Post], platform shoes, fits right in with the stock market transition from a bear market rally to a renewed downtrend. Back in May 2001 when Japan was enjoying a major platform shoe revival, we showed a pair of our own vintage platforms and said:

The bear market is still in mid-trend [in Japan]. One cultural clue is the emergence of 'super-platform' shoes. Last year, platform soles of up to nine inches became popular among "girl fashion gangs" and women who want to emulate the gangs' look. A similar excess for men hit the U.S. footwear market in 1973 when the bear market in inflation-adjusted terms was only about half over. For the Japanese market, then, this appears to be cultural confirmation that the bear market has a ways to go. The message for people who remember 1970s relics, don't buy stocks on the Nikkei too soon.

The Nikkei promptly fell another 40% by October 2002. An internet "History of the Platform Shoe" records that other than the last bear market of the 1970s, the only "in" phase for platform shoes was the 1930s. So, the style coincides with the two most bearish decades of the last century.

According to one couture writer, platform shoes are "dangerous to say nothing of gaudy," which is why they've always been a fashion faux pas in uptrends. But they go great with downtrends because, as EWFF [Elliott Wave Financial Forecast] noted in September 2002, "Poor taste is a hallmark of a bear market." At the end of a rally phase of a bear market, the fashionable literally lift themselves back toward former heights with several inches of corked footwear. Another possible aspect of social mood status is touched on in this observation from the New York Daily News: "Platforms uncover women's inner fierceness. Can't the world use a little of that right now?" Of course it can, because as EWI's cultural studies attest: "Women gain dominance in a bear market." What better way to express this than platform shoes? If history is any guide, soles will rise as the Dow falls.

Cue this Sunday's New York Times Styles section -- inside, there was a giant, full-color Bergdorf Goodman ad for platform shoes by designer Christian Louboutin. Bergdorf's website refers to them as an "exuberant wedge sandal," but the message is clear. These "powerfully feminine" shoes -- their term, not mine -- are indicating a rise in female power.

While we may be at four-month highs in the stock market, people unconsciously know that we're still well below the all-time highs, hence the fashionable literally lift themselves back toward former heights.


Also notice the On The Street section (again, emphasis mine):


"The signature high-fashion look for this winter is now clearly established: leggings or narrow trousers; ankle boots with chunky heels and platform soles that give weight to the base of the silhouette; and a short jacket or fingertip-length coat. The look was established by the wearers rather than a single fashion designer, and often has a haberdasher or tomboy feeling. You can see it in profusion on the sidewalks in the early morning on women heading to work."

If indeed "women gain dominance in bear markets," they may be indicating that the rally off the October 2011 lows remains just a bear market rally. Notice the nod to "tomboy feeling" and the fact that these women were spotted on their way to work, not shopping. They're gaining dominance in a tough economic environment and feeling very comfortable with it.

There is a saying that the markets "take the stairs up and the elevator down." As we've slowly labored higher on extremely low volume, bright colors reflect mass optimism and perhaps the hope for a brighter future inspired by a Dow that is firmly above 12,000, while the emergence of platform shoes suggests we may be getting ready to take the elevator to the ground floor.