I hope everyone enjoyed the Super Bowl with the first-ever Nuremberg Rally posing as a half-time show.
I was going to post some comments about the Super Bowl commercials, but to me, Madonna's "performance" was the most disturbing thing I think I've ever seen. So it looks like I'll have to do 2 posts. And definitely not right now.
Right now, it's all about the S&P, which has opened sharply lower from closing on its highs last Friday. I never did buy those puts I was speaking about. I knew I should have, but I guess I wanted a relaxing weekend without thinking about premium decay or wondering if I'd just done something stupid.
I also wanted some time to think about other scenarios just in case the Dow and the S&P confirm what the Russell and the NASDAQ have already done, which is to exceed their May highs. I do not think that would mean a new bull market was under way. But I would think that sideways action between 1000-1400 could continue for a while. This would frustrate both bulls and bears and would likely only benefit Obama.
For now, I'm a bit on guard. On guard for scenarios that prolong the push and pull between opposing sides. Only if the S&P were to get below 1300 for whatever reason -- and even better, 1292.66 -- would I be more inclined to get very aggressive to the short side.
I'd like to think I wouldn't have to wait that long, though. Perhaps a downside Fibonacci extension of greater than 161.8 or 261.8% sometime today or tomorrow might be enough. Until that happens, too much hope is in the air.
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