The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

It's Not Mr. Market. It's Ms.

What a beguiling minx. All the market had to do yesterday to give up the bear case was go higher than 1366.42. It got to 1365.96. Just high enough to get me out of the SPY calls I so poorly purchased in the morning just before the market smashed through 1365, the very spot I wanted to be long. And it went straight down to 1359.19, just below 1360, which was my stop. I know it is popular to refer to Mr. Market, but I prefer Ms. It's a sign of respect.

Or, think of it this way. Sit a dog next to a cat. The dog will want to be your friend, and what you see is pretty much what you get. But the cat will be a mystery. It will take you years to understand the cat, and even then it will surprise you.

Another thing. I enlisted a trading mentor several years ago who told me to just relax on Monday morning. He didn't even trade it. He said many other professionals didn't either. I used to compromise by waiting until the afternoon. For some reason, I felt so confident about the pattern that I jumped in yesterday. It could have been much worse, but it was a silly way to start a big week. Note to self.

So, this morning, futures are down hard. The 1354 area looks like it will get tested, which will keep the pressure on. I will still be looking for signs that the market is failing to the downside. So far it hasn't really dropped a bomb yet. And the volume has been less than what it went up on, which is potentially a bullish sign. I will continue to play against my SPY 130 puts with SPY calls, probably 135s or 136s.

5 comments:

  1. an excellent and fun read!! but last paragraph might be revised to: The 1340 area looks like it will get tested : ) k

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  2. see if this chart link works FXA:FXY with $spx overlay. http://tinypic.com/r/11jlzxi/5

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  3. Wow, really cool overlay! And thanks for the catch -- did not remember to revise after futures tanked even more. When I started the post they were only down 10. Good eye, thanks ;)

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  4. you might find this interesting: School for Quants

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/0664cd92-6277-11e1-872e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1oOUmCcb9

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  5. ha, excellent. they should try to meditate once in a while. thanks.

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