Everything was proceeding to plan until Friday afternoon at about 1:48 pm EST when the S&P broke the rising wedge pattern I was riding. The 1374.76 high was just below the 1378.04, and I had been waiting for 78.04 to be exceeded. It didn't happen. Suddenly I thought I'd seen what is called a truncation in Elliott Wave parlance.
A truncation is a fully complete impulse wave that fails to exceed the previous wave three high.
I'm very likely wrong. There is probably some other pattern tracing out because the expectation was that the market would break hard. It hasn't yet. But I wasn't taking any chances ahead of a weekend. Weekends are for relaxing. I went home flat.
The point is that while it's fine to take bullish positions when one is bearish, it's not fine to become attached to them. I am bearish.
1387.96 is still on the table, though, and so is 1336.75. I would be a heavy seller of the former and a cautious buyer of the latter if 1378.04 is not exceeded.
Got lots of packing finished this weekend -- difficult when so many different climates are involved. The change of time, however, was not as much fun. I have not exactly sprung forward yet.
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