The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Driving And Meditation

Today I head to Memphis with another hedged book and the strong possibility of having to pull over a few times to trade from the side of the road.  Don't worry, I only do that from a snazzy gas station or a spacious parking lot; I don't want a tractor-trailer turning me into a pancake on the side of the highway.  And I never, ever use Rest Areas.  They're creepy.

Germany, France, and the UK are down so far this morning, while Spain is getting pummeled again.  The news flow is starting too: Reuters reports Spain's debt to jump to 78 percent of GDP.  WSJ reports Spain Faces Risks in Budget Refit.  These are known knowns, so who knows if they'll be the next shoe to drop.  Just know that more will.

I will be calling into the trade desk every hour today to get market quotes, which becomes almost like a meditation.  I'll be listening for anything below 1413.07 which would suggest to me that the S&P wanted to correct a bit lower, possibly back to the 1400 area.  If it gathers its strength and gets above yesterday's highs (1422.18) the May 2008 high of 1440.24 could be the next target.

Yesterday allowed me to get hedged with cheap options, which means I'm gaming that one side will strongly outperform the other as the delta shifts in its favor and the premium expands to cover the loss on the other side and make a tidy profit too.  I was very lucky to get the late day action in the S&P which allowed this, because for a while it wasn't looking so good.  Now it feels better.  With any further luck, BBQ and some warmer weather will be in my future soon, though it's always sad to leave my friends here in the Chicago area.  It's been a blast, and thank you all!

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