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Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Scenarios, Levels, Positioning

Yesterday was great.  Let's see how today goes.   The SPY 140 calls that I was holding exploded with the rally.  I scaled out (too early) and got short at 11:57am EST.  I later bought SPY 142 calls against the short position, but anything below 1399.88 in the cash S&P effectively proves the trade wrong.  I will then have to manage it aggressively.  But even a total loss on the call trade (cheap OTM calls) would be something like a .025% drawdown.

Either yesterday completed an impulse wave up with more to come after a deeper pullback, or the market is still tracing out a complex high level correction before a new high, or it's virtually straight down from here over the next few weeks.  With my current inventory, I'm well positioned for each scenario.

The 1390-1393 area could provide early support today, and it should be watched as a key level.  Much below there and 1358.38 becomes the next level of interest.


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