The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Peak Easing

So the BOE, the ECB, and the PBOC (Chinese central bank) eased . . . and ES futures double-topped and caved in 10 points.  Only the ADP number "saved" them.  This is starting to feel like Peak easing, when the market turns fearful rather than greedy based on sudden thought of "how bad must it really be?"

I was cautious last Tuesday and remain so.  1380-1400 remains a sell zone in my view.  I'm merely waiting for the structure of the S&P to tell me when it is time to react.  VIX looks like a buy, SPY puts have had the premium jammed out of them, and just about any inverse ETF is as good as any other.  I've been using SPXU lately.

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