Pieces Of The Puzzle

Yesterday . . .

Until 1325.41 is broken, the opportunity still exists for 1380 to be exceeded.  Two major trend lines converge just below 1400.  I still feel it would be a massive selling opportunity.

There is a gap at 1362.66 that may want to be filled, but yesterday's rally felt weak to me.  I'm not smart enough to know whether there will be some backing and filling before the market attempts higher prices, or if it rolls over and plumbs new lows. 

Of all the currency crosses, the one that looks the most like the S&P over the last 2 months in AUDJPY.  So I'll be keeping an eye on it.  It too looks like it could test higher prices.

A lot happened yesterday.  For one thing, obviously the market proved that I was not smart enough to know there would be some backing and filling that would also lead to new lows.  And AUDJPY broke below its 7/12 level and has rallied above it this morning.  Again, not totally expected.

That's the cool thing about the market: you might get bits and pieces of the puzzle, but it's still a puzzle.  I unloaded a tranche of SPXU too soon yesterday and sold the calls I bought as a hedge against another tranche of shorts (SH) . . . at the close -- right at the perfect time for the Apple news, but way too soon for whatever sparked the overnight rally.

Today there is a Fib zone at 1347-1348.  There is an open & close at 1350.52.  The swing point is 1353.25, and if the market gets above that without getting below 1325.41 first, then the door swings open to 1380-1400 once again.  Crazy, but possible.

Regarding the overnight rally, I must say I enjoyed this interesting insight from Zero Hedge:

Hilsenrath Once Again With The 3:55 PM Sticksave

Just like last time around when stocks were plunging with no knight in shining armor in sight, until the Fed's faithful mouthpiece-cum-scribe Jon Hilsenrath showed up with a report, subsequently disproven, that more QE is coming minutes before the market close on July 6, so today stocks appeared poised for a precipice until some time after 3 pm it was leaked that none other than Hilseranth once again appeared, at precisely 3:55 pm, with more of the same. Ironically, the market only saw the word Hilsenrath in the headline, and ignored the rest. The irony is that this time around the Fed's scribbler said nothing that we did not know, namely that the Fed can do something in August, or it may do something in September, or it may do nothing, none of which is actually news.

What was the key line in Hilsy's tome? "Fed officials could take some actions in combination or one after another."

Could is such an interesting word.