The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, July 13, 2012

The Simplest Scenario

I was almost giddy yesterday when I left the dentist's office (another great check up) and heard the Dow had reversed and was positive by 20 points.  I had seen an Elliott Wave count that had the market in a "third of a third" -- a third wave down inside a larger third wave down, i.e., the most bearish wave count there is.  Yesterday effectively blew that scenario out the window.

Weeks ago I posted a chart forecasting an a-b-c correction from the June 4th lows.  The scenario in the chart was obviously too simplistic but the point is that its premise was that a large corrective advance was about to occur.  There are 16 corrective patterns in Elliott Wave theory.  It's hard to pin down the exact one, especially for someone like me who tries to keep things as simple as possible.

As was stated yesterday, unless 1309.27 fails, I believe the S&P is still in the corrective advance and that it is not over.  1374.81 is likely the next target if 1309.27 holds.

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