The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, September 21, 2012

Quaduple Witching

The 1:1 Fib extension to 1446.67 never materialized, but it's important to take what the market gives. Today it looks as though 1465.15 is the decision number. Futures look strong overnight -- a rising wedge -- and a three-wave structure looks in place from the high.

Could 1465.15 get exceeded and then reverse? Yes, and perhaps there is a little unfinished Fibonacci business below.  Today is quadruple witching, so my bet is that anything can happen and probably will.

The rate of ascent from yesterday's 1449.98 low -- which just pierced the 1445-1450 I was looking for a few days earlier -- is not what I was expecting if the low was "real."  I was expecting a powerful impulsive thrust.  Maybe the market is in the process of tracing out a triangle before new highs.  The point is: new highs are coming more than likely so if lows occur, I'm still a buyer.

I grabbed SPY 145 calls yesterday and sold them into the rally, so today I'll need to reload. It may be puts, it may be calls. It may be nothing at all -- I could use a break. I've had a second job for the past three weeks trying finish a post about the socionomics of September Vogue. Work all day, write all night. I'm looking forward to finishing, but finishing well.

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