The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Above And Below

Ha, the one day I neglected to list downside targets . . . .

As soon as I saw the open was red yesterday after being green all morning, I laughed and realized I had only done half my homework. No matter. The market let me out with a solid gain on some SPY 145 puts I had been holding since last week. Thought they were toast.

Now I will have to wait for the same thing with some SPY 147 calls I bought last Friday. Was way too soon on those.

I buy options in tranches and use them many times as markers or test trades. I like to win every trade, but long as I keep each test well below the pain threshold for my account, I'm content with using them to tell me whether I'm right or wrong. When my conviction goes up, I trade out of the incorrect positions (if I can) often without bailing on them.

In this sort of centrally managed and politically charged market in which surprises can happen in either direction, I want to have two-way exposure as much as possible -- to profit above and below.

So today I see downside pressure on the 1435-1430 area. In the futures pre-market, I see a small rising wedge which may yield a bounce in the regular session. I will probably hedge that bounce (already long some SPY 144 calls from yesterday's close) or take profits on the calls.

Upside I see the potential for 1450-1455, the same area that interested me on the way down.

Traded Apple again yesterday off the lows, still getting a feel for it. Used 650 calls, very much OTM, for a gain but no big woop.

Lots more IMF news today, and I don't like it. Notice IMF Weighing New Loans For Europe when the ECB should be in charge. This is more centralized globalist posturing by an organization that has caused far more harm than good since it came into existence at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944.

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