Morning Lift Off

We're getting a lift this morning in the futures market, as we should be. The market reached the 50-day moving average which coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 1474.51 high measured from the 9/4 1396.56 low. Waking up to the alternative -- a gap down -- would have spelled big trouble.

But just because the market is bouncing from the 50-day does not mean it's out of the woods. The big tell now is how does it act on the bounce: how high, how strong, etc. Today there are two important higher numbers to watch: 1438.43 and 1443.90. I'd like to see the S&P get above both.

Since the pattern from the 10/5 1470.96 high does not count well as a 5-wave impulse, I see two scenarios: a rally to 1445-1450 before a further decline. Or, a rally to new highs above 1474.51.

A failure to take out 1443.90 would open the door to much lower numbers such as 1415, 1410 and 1396.56 and be another indication that the rally from 6/4 was just a sloppy fake-fest.

I see markets in two ways, motive and corrective. Impulsive or "sloppy." The market since 1266.74 has been incredibly sloppy in my opinion. And yet it could still be part of a larger topping structure that allows for new highs even with a decline to 1396.56 or worse. Such is the market and its many beguiling ways to throw everyone off track.

Perhaps it's why I appreciate socionomics so much, because it provides a backdrop for the market's musings and a mirror of its mood. Here's something that caught my eye:

Cambridge Sells Its First Bond

The University of Cambridge sold its first-ever bond Wednesday, in a highly anticipated deal that could encourage other U.K. universities to follow suit.

Cambridge sold 350 million pounds ($563 million) worth of 40-year bonds, making it the second U.K. university in three months to tap long-term debt markets in order to fund development projects.

The offering was "heavily subscribed."

"Cambridge is a solid credit with a strong liquidity position."

The bond "may become one of the sector benchmarks. There are other universities thinking about it."

I bet they are thinking about it, because they can feel the debt vise tightening.

I see higher education as just another bubble fostered by easy money. Rather than creating the next generation of entrepreneurs, sky-high tuition seems to be creating a generation of debt slaves instead.

I somehow think that this debt offering indicates that the pace of growth has peaked, and that downward pressure may increase as students begin to turn away from borrowing excessive amounts of money with absolutely no guarantee of a job. Granted, the prospects from Cambridge are about as good as they get. But it will be something to watch closely.