The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Simple Scenarios And Third Grade Math

No comment on last night's debate. The small earthquake was way more fun. It was 4.0 magnitude and located up in Maine, and it just felt cool. Probably because it was so mild. I probably wouldn't think so if it had been a strong one.

There has been a strong rally in the S&P, and today I think it's going to signal whether new highs are coming sooner . . . or later. But regardless of how they come about, I'm betting they do, no matter what.

So there are two scenarios as I see it: either the market reverses today and heads to new lows below 1425 or it does not. Simple.

1460 would be the 78.6% retracement level. But the turn could come sooner. Should the market stay above 1440, I'll set my sights on 1500.

In the news today, the latest example that no one really cares about anything can be found here:

Spain Retains Investment Grade Credit Rating From Moody’s

Spain kept its investment grade credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service, which said the European Central Bank’s willingness to buy the nation’s debt reduces the risk of the country losing market access.

Got that? Instead of exercising the third grade math skills that would prove that Spain is too big for the ECB to bail out, Moody's takes the ECB's word for it that they'll buy enough debt to keep Spain's interest rates at favorable levels.

This is yet another reason why I feel this election is not about which candidate you'd like to win, but which party you'd like to see go down with the ship and the rocks puncture our over-inflated life raft.

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