The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, October 19, 2012

Surprises To The Downside

Just heard that McDonald's sales are down everywhere in the world except for Europe. I don't think this means good things for Europe. I think it means people are downshifting their food choices due to financial distress. It's sad. There is too much great food across Europe for people to be eating McDonald's.

Speaking of conviction, the strongest that mine was yesterday (if I could even call it strong) was around the 1464.02 high. Even then the pattern felt incomplete, and I felt 1467.50 might get hit. I still do.

While the action off the high was fun, it's not exciting from a wave perspective -- yet. So today could be yet another day when nothing feels right. This is a perfect time for options.

GOOG may have scared the life out of many people yesterday, but it didn't scare Fibonacci traders.  It closed just above its 38% retracement on the daily chart. It just happened quickly. However, I see it as a metaphor for the entire market.

Recall that back in the internet boom of the 90s, surprises occurred to the upside. Every day it seemed there was a gap higher somewhere. That's what happens in a bull market. Now note AAPL, PCLN, CMG, GOOG -- the surprises are coming to the downside. The form of the market is changing. And when that happens it is time for us to change.

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