The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, November 26, 2012

Waiting For The Odds

Once again, the Day-after-Thanksgiving rally does not fail to impress. In fact, I can't remember the market being down the day after Thanksgiving ever. I'm sure I'm wrong, but that's what it feels like. It always seems to close on its highs too.

Lucky or unlucky for me (definitely lucky), I'm usually well away from the interwebs at my sister's farmhouse in the country, one of the few places where I don't mind being away from work on a work day. She and her husband and my nieces host Thanksgiving each year for my entire family. I'd much rather be there, even if there's as close to a sure thing in the market as the Day-after-Thanksgiving rally.

As expected, the futures are coming off the highs this morning. 1390 looks like a spot for the market to rest. The 38% retracement level is 1384. The market has plenty of options now. 1430 doesn't seem so outlandish anymore, either. But it's up to the market to make the first move. Monday morning after a holiday-shortened week is a time to settle in and wait for the odds to stack up.

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