The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Deep Freeze In The Baltic

An amazing statistic from Zero Hedge this morning on one of my favorite indicators: the Baltic Dry Index. It just plunged by 8.2% overnight, the largest one day drop since 2008. This doesn't mean that things are just fine.

However, the market -- the S&P 500 -- doesn't seem to mind. Judging by the futures action overnight, the S&P wants new highs above 1434.27. But to do this, the cash S&P must get above 1432.93. Futures are indicating that it will, but it is the cash market that has the final say. Not the SPY, not the SSO, or any other derivative of price, but the price of all 500 stocks in the index simultaneously. Price itself.

So above 32.93, it looks like new highs. Then what? I've never seen more paths that the market could take. The short answer is that I'd look to get short again. I bought puts at the right time yesterday and sold them at the wrong time. I don't intend to repeat the mistake part. I do think the market could be vulnerable to 1420 or more.

How high could it go? 1440 maybe. Maybe more. Unfortunately, it's an FMOC day. Who the hell knows what those clowns will do. I've got some calls. I want to get some puts. More than that, at this moment, I can't say yet. But I will buy dips and sell rips just like any other day.

I watched the first 10 minutes of Amish Mafia last night on the Discovery Channel and turned it off. I found it disturbing. Times are changing.

No comments:

Post a Comment