The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Apprehension Versus Opportunity

I love this commercial. I love it because it's what I call a "universal truth" that applies to a far wider audience than prospective car buyers.

I also love it because I think it applies to being a trader.

Read this next paragraph by Dr. Ari Kiev and watch it again:

"A basic assumption of Trading To Win is that the uncertainty of the markets and the stress of trading both contribute to increased defensive and automatic thoughts, which color trading activity and contribute to swings in the market itself. These fixed patterns of decision making, while appearing to be rational, are governed by survival needs and automatic defense patterns. That behavior must be recognized and mastered if the trader is to be free in a difficult marketplace."

The uncertainty and stress of going to his high-school prom alone cause him to feel defensive and automatic thoughts, which color his perception of it, exactly the way a trader may react to the marketplace when it goes against him.

He experiences a fixed pattern of decision making -- apprehension --, which is a rational subconscious response meant to shield him from "harm," much like avoiding a trade, both of which are governed by survival needs and automatic defense patterns.

At the stoplight, he experiences a moment of clarity which causes him to see things as they really could be and to recognize opportunity. He takes it. He makes the trade. The outcome is uncertain and possibly dangerous but he doesn't care. He's focused on his goal, his objective, nothing else.

It pays off. He makes out with the prom queen and gets a black eye for it, but he's elated.

Traders compete in a similar environment of risk and reward. When we focus on the goal and the tasks required to meet that goal, all else falls away. We have clarity. We recognize opportunity. We make the trade. Even if we know we will lose a certain percentage of time in order to win.

Something tells me this guy is going to have a great Monday when he returns to school.

Trade with a goal in mind, and Monday is the best day of the week.

For today, I'm willing to put this chart out there even though there is a good chance it could give me a black eye. But I can't deny that it appeals to me. There are many higher targets for the S&P, but right here, right now, at 1509.71, there is a completed Fibonacci pattern.

At this moment, the futures are diving in what appears to be an impulsive fashion. I don't know what it will mean for the regular session, but I traded calls yesterday with a very short leash and will use more today if the S&P remains above 1502.28. I may even get heavy in puts. Who knows.

All I see opportunity. It's everywhere.

The agency that created this commercial is Venables Bell & Partners 
and the song (pre-release on iTunes) is "Can't Win 'em All" by Hanni El Khatib

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