The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Subtlety At Work

I'm showing this chart today as it has a bit more meaning based on the action of the futures overnight. Yesterday it felt a bit premature, but maybe it wasn't.

Please note it's not to scale. 1443 is a better area for reversal due to it being a Fibonacci confluence area (an area of agreement between two separately drawn Fibonacci grids). There is also a lower confluence level at 1425.

The point is I still see higher prices, even with the weakness internally. Price makes patterns, and the pattern would simply look (and count) best with another high.

Zero Hedge is running an amazing story this morning about the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, pulling all of its gold from the Federal Reserve and the Banque de France. This is a huge story. Zero Hedge are gold bugs, so of course they see it impacting the price of gold, which it may or may not do.

I see it a bit more darkly, and this view is summed up in the last paragraphs, that the Fed may have, on more than one occasion, been caught skimming on physical gold deliveries. I fully agree with their assessment that if central banks do not trust each other, we should not trust the central banks.

The gold market is very much like the world of dollars: far more credits than there are physical assets to back them up. Get your gold and get your money before some central banker does.

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