The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, February 1, 2013

Taking Shape

The other day I mentioned a completed, multi-year Fibonacci extension at 1509.71. It was surpassed by 23 ticks and led to the largest decline of the new year.

The wave pattern since then leaves a lot to be desired from a bearish standpoint, but at least the market seems to be respecting form. Other than that, I still see higher highs coming, but the end game may be taking shape from a pattern point of view.

Today I'd like to see yesterday's 1504.19 high re-tested, or slightly exceeded for a test of the 61.8% retracement at 1504.90. Yesterday's bounce was about as sloppy as the decline which means the correction is probably not over, but a good bounce will allow me to properly hedge the 150 calls I have.

Since the S&P likely completed five waves up from 1/15, 1485.16 is no longer a stop. But getting below the low of that day (1463.76) would likely signal trouble.

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