The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Waiting For A Change In Personality

So the volume profile "roll over" idea was totally wrong, but yesterday's S&P close did leave a lot to be desired.

Futures are flirting with marginal highs in the pre-market, however, the cash S&P could have an interesting set up if it makes a marginal new high today then closes beneath it.

Specifically, a close below 1518.31 could yield a modest pullback as a precursor to another high. The pattern is looking like a bearish rising wedge. The hard stop for this pattern is 1498.49. I wouldn't want to see the market that low, however.

This means I'll be looking to add calls on any pullback into the 1508-1510 retracement area. I would plan to sell all longs into the next up-leg should it materialize.

There are lower levels that could be tested before another up-leg to new highs occurs. But until I see the market do a deep retracement -- essentially a change in personality -- I'll stick with this plan here.

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