The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, February 8, 2013

Triangles Or Histrionics

Futures appear to have consolidated overnight. This keeps pressure on the bears, and leaves two levels that must be broken if any kind of deeper pullback is to materialize: 1498.49 and 1495.02 respectively.

A triangle appears to be forming that should lead to what could then be the last upthrust of the rally from the November lows before a meaningful correction. I still see divergence on nearly every time frame, but I also see the possibility for the market to correct -- even as much as 100 S&P points -- and then head to another high. That high would have me looking for the end of the entire rally from 2009.

If there is a triangle in store near-term, today could see a test of the upper boundary around 1511. Not sure how deep a retracement would be, but I would look to buy any dip. There is still a Fibonacci extension target at 1519.

This is just one scenario. Below 1495 would negate this and suggest more market histrionics.

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