The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

News, Not News, And Sloppiness

BRICS Nations Plan New Bank to Bypass World Bank, IMF

Now that is some news.

Given the action (as well as inaction) of the World Bank and especially the IMF lately, I can't blame the BRICS nations. I applaud them.

It doesn't matter what comes of this plan. It's the fact there is a plan at all. The balance of power will likely shift in our lifetimes.

I see a group planning for the future. I see another group all but planning its demise. I see yet another off in space.

Instead, Cyprus will probably garner more ink than this story today, but it shouldn't. Soaring Italian and Spanish yields should be the focus, but they're not. What Will The Oligarchs Do? seems to be the focus.

I'll focus on the S&P which is acting weird. There is a guideline in Elliott Wave theory that waves should have the "right look." The wave down from yesterday's high looks sloppy, yet I can count it as an impulse (if I really try).

This looks awful, but it's possible. The good thing is that the count yields a hard stop that is easily proven wrong. I often sit still and do nothing until the rule is broken which proves a wave count wrong. Today I will watch 1555.59.

This does not mean that price can't head lower. It just seems so far that it may not be doing so in the form of an impulse.

I posted this chart intraday yesterday which may suggest 1540:

If 1538.57 is breached, there is the 38% Fib retracement at 1533. I might also expect 1530.94 to get tested. Below 1525.34 would suggest a possible deeper correction, or that a near-term top is in.

I still think a triangle is forming which would lead to higher prices, possibly above 1567 into the all-time high of 1576 or 1580.

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