The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Risk Signals

Yesterday had breadth and ticks but failed on price and volume. The volume I can understand as it hasn't really been there for a few years now. But price didn't really cut it on the S&P.

Perhaps this means that a triangle may be ready to form instead of a strong upthrust to new highs. If so, lower prices should be bought. If 1538.57 should fail, perhaps the 38% Fib buy retracement at 1533 will get tested. I remain constructive until 1525.34 fails.

I posted this chart of GBPAUD yesterday which is a good indicator of Risk ON/Risk OFF as seen by its parabolic run during the Lehman crisis. It may be getting ready to signal Risk OFF as the S&P attempts its all-time highs. I'm watching this closely on the daily time frame.

Europe is not looking very clever this morning, down across the board. This is also a heads up for our markets. We will probably continue to cue off Europe for the time being.

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