The collision of global markets and social mood

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Today's Post, Two Days Early

Writing the Monday morning post ahead of time because I'm headed to the hills for a boil which is a Rite of Spring in New England, a chance to reconnect to the land and produce something from it through the collective efforts of family and friends.

That special something is maple syrup . . . that sweet golden nectar which, if priced like oil, would cost over $1500 a barrel.

Friday afternoon was another example of pinning. In this case, weekly SPY options got pinned to the 152 strike. Volatility will likely return.

So far the S&P is making lower highs while the Dow closed just shy of an all-time weekly closing high. The Dow is looking wobbly as it tests these highs. It will probably exceed them. Then what.

The number on the S&P is now 1525.34. If exceeded, look for the S&P to confirm the Dow by attempting to test its own all-time high of 1576. I do not think it will succeed. There is some good Fib work coupled with harmonic geometry that suggests 1550 is the target. But there's also a dead-simple 13-year trend line suggesting 1600.

If 1525.34 holds, a quick trip back below 1500 could take place. However, I was very suspicious of Friday morning's decline because of its muted downside internals, so I bought SPY 150.50 weekly calls which saved my butt. They exploded.

So it is possible that the market is forming a triangle which would suggest 1485 is the floor. It could also be forming an inverse head and shoulders. It's too soon to tell.

This is the perfect time to trade. Buy weakness, sell strength. Until something breaks. Then you can become a bull or a bear and probably be a pig about it, too.

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