The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, April 12, 2013

Beta And The Big Dogs

Futures are looking heavy in the pre-market.  Asia was down across the board, and Europe too. The big news to me is the DAX which is the standout weakness, down 1.48% so far. The chatter is that Cyprus is seeking more aid (which ultimately Germany is on the hook for). My concern is that it is the high-beta index of Europe in addition to being the strongest economy there.

Generally beta leads.

The A/D line continued to contract yesterday. Overnight, the yen got stronger as doubts set in about the ultimate success of Abenomics. In each case, USJPY, EURJPY, and AUDJPY each got to a new high and closed below the previous low. That's a strong reversal signal.

Here's the last thing I'm looking at: 52-week Hi Lo Difference. Still no breakout as price broke higher. Jessie Livermore would not like this one bit, nor would Richard Wyckoff nor Charles Dow.

This is just since January. If you go back to the highest number of new 52-week highs vs lows, the record since the 2009 low was set back in 2010 at 670. There's a remarkable multi-year weakening going on.

The market looks ready for a shallow pullback before yet higher prices. Below 1580 should be of concern to this scenario. I have a Fibonacci extension target at 1607.41.

The Battle of the Billionaires is on fire in the megayacht world. 590 feet is now the Big Dog. Anything less and you're not makin it. This is like a Skyscraper Signal for the rich. It's also another sign of a coming top.

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