The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Choppers And Cautionary Tales

Quite a round trip in the futures last night after yesterday's new high. I never like it when a market struggles to a retest high, exceeds it by a few pennies, then sells off. Futures sold off 8 points last night and have rallied back to yesterday's highs.

I think the market is bent on tagging 1576 but feels tired. Volume, Ticks, A/Ds, 52-week high/low difference . . . they're all week. It matters, but not yet to this market.

Unless one is wild-eyed bullish and fully levered to this market as it grinds higher, it is likely frustrating at times. It's a great reminder not to get too big for one's britches when on the right side of it. Flexibility is the key. Because there will come a time when a one-sided view becomes a blind-sided view. Or the worst, you become overly committed at the worst possible time.

As I'm on the road again, headed south for a conference this time, here is why these thoughts are on my mind, because the building below is one of the first things I noticed this morning when I left the hotel for breakfast.

This is the 98,000 square foot, $13 million headquarters of Orange County Choppers from American Choppers fame. Built during good times when everything was hunky dory, it's now for sale.

In order to avoid foreclosure, former owner and star of American Choppers, Paul Teutul Sr., was forced to hand over the property deed to his lender, GE Commercial Finance Business Property Corp., for $10.

He now leases it from them.

The photo above does not reveal the massive scale of the place. It's absolutely huge. How he thought it was a prudent business decision to take on that much debt is beyond me. It was a cautionary tale to wake up to.

I went down the street to the Neptune diner and had a bacon, egg, and cheese on an English muffin while Kim Carnes belted out Bettie Davis Eyes. Classic.

Betty davis eyes by Kim Carnes on Grooveshark

Back to the market, it's possible the consolidation since March 15th is not over, and that another dip trip could occur. Below 1540 is still possible. 1525.34 should be viewed as an important fail-safe level.

It seems the Fed minutes got leaked yesterday, so they've been released at 9am ET. Recall yesterday's post which noted Bernanke's most recent comments regarding how QE3 will be exited: Cnbc's Steve Liesman is flagging the potential for "early tapering." Told ya.

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