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Friday, April 19, 2013

Options Expiration Bounce

Futures are coming off their overnight highs, but still indicate a bounce. Looking at this morning's open interest in OEX options before this afternoon's expiration, a close between 695-700 would seem to screw the most buyers of puts and calls this month. This equates to 1540-1550 on the S&P.

The caveat is that I have not calculated the dollar value of the open interest, just the notational amount, which may yield a different number. Another caveat is that the market is far larger than a group of insiders who write options.

I like the look of the pattern at this juncture.  I see a bullish falling wedge as long as it stays above 1530. The target could be 1570-1575. There is also a penny wide gap at 1588.85.

The S&P is also sitting on the up trend line from the November 2012 lows, and closed just above the 50-day MA. A breakdown here would not be good, and would likely target 1485.

I'm sensing a bounce and am positioned for one, but am aware that another marginal low could be in the cards.

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