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Friday, April 5, 2013

Voodoo In The Afternoon

Futures were down hard in the overnight session. Ominously, the market reached a 61.8% sell retracement at yesterday's close to the tick. It sold off from that point as soon as the market closed and didn't stop. I was looking for price to test the 1565 area. Voodoo on that.

Interestingly, I found that the open interest on the weekly OEX 685 puts expiring at today's close was just 215 contracts while someone bought 2057 of them. This implies a bet on a 30 point S&P decline today. It could just be protection, but it's still an anomaly worth noting.

NFP numbers come out at 8:30am ET. I see two lower targets that interest me: 1540 and 1530.

1540 is a 1:1 Fib target as well as the level of the March 19th lows. 1530 is a 38% buy retracement area and close to the former breakout level of 1530.94. If price closes below there, get out of the way. The entire March rally would likely be viewed as a failure.

There is also chatter about the fact that Fed Governor Janet Yellen, a longstanding dove, is the latest to warn about an early exit of QE3. This is not what the "don't fight the crowd" wanted to hear.

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